20 Jan 2026
A common misconception is that prediction markets are "just gambling" or that the displayed odds are the platform's opinion. In reality, markets like Polymarket express a crowd-derived, money-backed probability and operate through specific mechanical rules that shape incentives, liquidity and risk. Understanding those mechanisms — how prices map to probability, how resolution turns outcomes into USDC, and where the system breaks down — is essential for anyone using prediction markets as an informational tool, a
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